Notes on data and forecast assumptions

The forecasts presented in this report are produced using the Oxford Economics Local Authority District Forecasting Model, but are fully consistent with the UK ITEM Club Autumn 2018 forecast.

The forecasts depend essentially upon three factors:

  • National outlooks.
  • Historical trends in an area augmented by local knowledge and understanding of patterns of economic development, built up over decades of expertise.
  • Fundamental economic relationships which interlink the various elements of the outlook.

The forecasts are demand-based, and assume no supply-side constants. They also assume the continuation of existing government policies, and those currently announced. While the UK government does not have a specific regional policy, some enterprise support is allocated locally, and infrastructure decisions clearly have regional implications. The devolved administrations have their own responsibilities in these areas, which cause some differences in policies and priorities.

Key data definitions used in this report:

  • Total employment is jobs-based, and includes employees in employment, the self-employed, Her Majesty’s Forces and government supported trainees.
  • GVA data is presented in 2016 prices and excludes output from the ‘extra region’; i.e., the contribution from North Sea oil and gas extraction, UK embassies abroad, and UK forces stationed overseas. The latter are included in the GDP definition used in the EY macroeconomic forecasts.
  • Labour force unemployment is the official unemployment measure, and refers to the number of jobless people who want to work, are available to work, and are actively seeking employment.
  • Any reference to workforce jobs relates to employee jobs rather than total workforce jobs, given the volatility of the regional self-employment data.
  • The analysis in this report is based on published data available on or before 12 November 2018.